Monday, May 05, 2008

Wars Fought to Maintain International Cooperation

Introduction

The deliberate taking of human life is generally deemed morally wrong. Whether one approaches this moral position from a rights-based perspective, namely, that no one has the right to take another human being’s life or from a duty-based perspective, namely, that one has the duty to respect the sanctity of human life, killing is equally objectionable because it is particularly cowardly and intrinsically hubristic. It is cowardly because killing is an ignoble admission that one refuses to find a peaceful way to resolve his disputes and does not have the courage to honorably accept defeat. Rather than dealing with the issue at hand, he seeks an easy exit to terminate his enemy’s very existence. In doing so, he showcases his hubris because he lets his own will and himself get larger than life itself. Moralists also find it objectionable when one resorts to the use of force, another key component of killing, because it underscores the failure of Reason. Indeed, the reign of Reason is the hallmark of our society and the watershed between antiquity and modernity. However much we denounce killing and ridicule the killers though, when “it comes to the killing of thousands and even millions of people in war… this is widely accepted as a necessary and inevitable part of our way of life.”
Pacifism does question whether war is inevitable. Pacifism finds killing and the use of physical force so morally objectionable that all wars, regardless of their cause and their nature, are categorically characterized as immoral. Recent history, however, renders pacifism at best an aspiration because the reality is simply too distant from the end vision that pacifism inspires. Even if we refrain from going back in history, in the 1990s alone, more than 30 large scale wars broke out, mostly in the Balkans, Africa, the Middle East and Central Asia. The new millennium does not break the world away from the same trend that has gone on for as far as history can remember. The wars in Iraq and Darfur appear in headlines incessantly. But more quietly, another two dozen wars have broken out since 2000 and some are still ongoing. Sharing a similar moral conviction to pacifism, just war theory seems to bring the moral calculation a little closer to reality.

The very existence of just war theory lends support to the use of physical force in certain just scenarios, but clearly bifurcates the universe of all wars into two categories: the just ones and the unjust ones. Just wars transcend the simple moral objection to killing on an individual basis and in the process of doing so, they reveal the fact that wars waged for certain cause and conducted in a strict manner perhaps are a rational, and therefore moral, way to settle disputes in the world we live in today. Perhaps the simple reliance on Reason alone is not sufficient to organize worldly affairs and to maintain international order. Perhaps there are other values and rights that we hold higher than our respect for the sanctity of life and to defend these values and rights, we are willing to employ violent means if that is what it takes.

Before delving into the analysis of the moral calculations behind just war theory, a glimpse into how a modern sovereign handles its domestic affairs might provide a frame of reference to understanding the just war calculus. Max Weber acutely notes that a modern state is “a human community that (successfully) claims the monopoly of the legitimate use of physical force within a given territory.” Various penal systems around the world are good examples of the monopolization of the use of physical force. In order to promote public interest and protect social order, the collectivity, either in the form of a democratically elected government or a dictatorship, enacts penal codes to narrowly define the type of undesirable behavior repugnant to peace and stability. The penal codes coerce the general public to conform to a certain behavioral standard so that societies can be organized around a certain set of expectations, such as quiet enjoyment of one’s own property free from trespassers, or free from theft and robbery in the public life. These penal codes are backed by credible threat to use physical force against those that choose to violate these codes of conduct. Ironically, however much modern societies abhor physical force, physical force turns out to be the guarantor of its peace and stability. Indeed, in the background, a low lever of violence, the use of which is monopolized by the government, is necessary in order to deter disruptive behavior, punish the deviants and maintain social orders. Despite our moral discomfort, physical force is necessary for the purpose of rationally settle disputes when all other methods prove futile or too costly.
To the extent that analogies can be drawn between violence in domestic affairs and violence among independent nations, just war theorists are engaging in a similar project. They accept that, in limited cases, the use of violence may be a necessary, sometimes even rational, means to settle disputes between nations and to resolve ideological differences. By drawing a line between just and unjust wars, just war theorists create a framework to allow the use of force as a last resort in carefully defined scenarios. In all other cases, this just war framework provides a platform to denounce the war, to undermine soldiers’ will to take part in the war and to deter leaders from engaging in wars by imposing criminal liabilities in the aftermath of the war. Unlike the possibility of monopolization within a country’s borders, just war theory does not have the luxury of centralizing the use of force at the collective level, but it rides on the back of the almost ubiquitous moral objection to violence and killing and can use international law and public opinion as vehicles to achieve it goal. The division line between just and unjust wars is therefore almost magical because the presumption of guilt shifts almost immediately when a war traverses from one side of the line to the other.

With power comes responsibility. Since the division line has this magical power, where it is drawn is of utmost importance. The development of just war theory is, interestingly, a history of codifying religious, mostly Christian, penchant for peace to balance with reality. The early Christian tradition “rejected all participation in military activities, but when Christianity became the official religion of the Roman Empire it had to accommodate itself to the realities of political life.” Saint Thomas Aquinas is regarded as the first person to systematically present the religious teaching into a body of just war theory. The influence of religious teaching on one hand provides a solid moral foundation for the just war tradition, but on the other hand requires unequivocal moral clarity. As a result, it is probably unsurprising to see that today’s just war theory enumerates just causes and explicitly defines the codes of conduct during war.

Common to all enumerated system, explicitly defined just causes sometimes fall victim to their own rigidity. Under today’s just war theory, only wars fought in self-defense are considered just causes. Humanitarian concerns and nuclear non-proliferation interests are topics, toward which just war theorists feel the most uneasy, because extending the reach of the just war framework to include these causes might run the risk of being over inclusive, but leaving them out leads to the uncomfortable situation where the prevailing morality and practical needs might have to operate outside of the just war framework.

When substantively defined just causes seem to illy serve the world we live in, it is natural to explore the possibility of taking procedural steps to make just war theory more complete. This paper seeks to explore whether additional procedural hurdles are necessary to qualify just causes in addition to the pre-defined just causes and then tries to answer whether such a move is appropriate. Then, I will discuss the advantages and disadvantages of introducing procedural requirements into the just war tradition.

Certainly just war theory should not expand or contract based on the prevailing morality of the day. A careful analysis of the just war tradition shows, however, that using a set of predetermined procedures to qualify causes for war is in furtherance of the objective just war theory aims to promote. Just war theory is an effort to balance the atrocities of war and human suffering with other fundamental values and rights that we cherish. In a quest to uncover why these values and rights are so fundamental that they transcend the moral objection to killing, we come to realize that in the modern world where cooperation and collaboration are the touchstones of international order, cooperation and collaboration themselves may cause wars as well, especially when individual states try to withdraw from this collaborative scheme. Indeed, the trend toward international cooperation is the coercive force and the underlying reason that procedural requirements need to be introduced to the just war tradition in order to adapt itself to the new century.

I. Just War Theory Helps to Minimize All Incidents of War

A. Self Defense is the Only Just Cause to Go to War

Today’s just war theory covers two important aspects of war: ex ante what wars can be considered just and during the war, what conducts are acceptable. These two aspects are usually referred to as jus ad bellum and jus in bello.
Richard Norman provides a concise summary for the jus ad bellum doctrines in his book Ethics, Killing and War:

1. The war must be fought for a just cause.
2. The decision to go to war must be made with a right intention.
3. The decision to go to war must be made by a legitimate authority.
4. There must be a formal declaration of war.
5. There must be a reasonable hope for success.
6. The decision to go to war should be a last resort.
7. The decision must satisfy the requirement of proportionality.

A just cause is essential in the just war consideration. Norman’s summary calls for a just cause first and the later criteria all concern the source, authority and procedures how this just cause is executed and carried out. In Just and Unjust Wars, Michael Walzer considers the defense of aggression as a just cause. Walzer asserts that all aggressive acts “have one thing in common: they justify forceful resistance, and force cannot be used between nations, as it often can between persons, without putting life itself at risk.” In fact, defending against aggression is so well recognized that Norman summarizes that “the wrong which war should attempt to right is the crime of aggression, and the only justification for going to war is therefore as defence against aggression.”

Reasonable minds might differ over what other justifications qualify as just causes. The Iraq war in 2003 is a good example in that regard. In the days before war broke out, the Vatican, “reputed to be a principal custodian of the just war tradition,” repeatedly said that while the weapon inspectors were still working in Iraq, such a war on the basis of the eradication of weapons of mass destruction would be unjust and “the Holy See opposed the US-led war in Iraq with a ferocity that few issues in the recent past have aroused.” On the other hand, a group of American intellects as well as the U.S. government were morally unequivocal about the just nature of the Iraq invasion. Michael Novak was so compelled by the mandatory nature of the war that “he went to Rome, summoned by the United States ambassador to the Vatican, James Nichollson, to convince the hierarchy of the need for war.” When he failed, Novak led a group of Catholics, including “Jean Bethke Elshtain, John Richard Neuhaus, George Weigel… to [defend the] ‘just war tradition’ they felt the Vatican had abandoned.” Unfortunately, just war theory is silent on how to reconcile such polarized views on the just cause of a war. One has to wonder whether there are justified grievances on both sides and if yes, how they should be dealt with on a conceptual level and in their real world implications.

For the purpose of the exercise in this paper and to the extent that Norman is correct in the sense that defense against aggression is the only universally well recognized just cause, just war theory safeguards the use of violence in extremely limited scenarios and is truly a last resort both in the sense of having exhausted all other means and being pressed with time to defend oneself in the face of aggression. It is less clear, though, even in this conception, what constitutes aggression. Is it a physical attack? Does economic sanction count? How about a blockade? There is no easy answer before we understand substantively what the just war tradition tries to accomplish.

B. The Just War Tradition Takes a Moral Stand Between Pacifism and Realism

Pacifism, just war theory and realism hold different attitudes toward war. Essentially, they all engage in the same balancing act, but assign different weights to each integral aspect in this complex moral, ethical and practical calculus.

Pacifists are clearly at one end of the spectrum. Toward the end of the WWII, Pope Pius XII in his Christmas Message declared, “The theory of war as an apt and proportionate means of solving international conflicts is now out of date.” Taken this logic one step further, John Courtney Murray argued that “the use of force is not now a moral means for the redress of violated legal rights. The justness of the cause is irrelevant; there simply is no longer a right of self-redress; no individual state may presume to take even the cause of justice into his own hands.” Instead of deriving pacifism from a religious moral imperative, a secular approach can arrive at a similar conclusion, too. The cost of war, economically and in human suffering, is so formidably high that no gain, economically or morally, can categorically outweigh the cost. Carving out certain wars to call them just wars a priori cannot square with this view. In fact, to the extent that Murhpy’s law rings some truth that if anything can go wrong, it will, any war, just, unjust or however they are labeled, allows too many opportunities for things to go wrong. Murphy’s law also makes it impossible to correctly estimate the cost of war ex ante. Therefore, pacifism is the only logical position to take, even simply following this secular approach.
Not believing in wars, unfortunately, cannot make them go away. One’s pacifist penchant can be a powerful starting point, but as a coherent theory, pacifism must quickly realize that wars are fought, among other reasons, to settle disputes, to gain advantages or to triumph a certain ideology. It is imperative to address these problems and construct a meaningful, workable and peaceful way to resolve the underlying cause of the conflicts. For pacifism to have any real world relevance, it must predicate on a strong presumption that there is always a non-violent solution to these problems. Or more realistically, there is always a non-violent solution to these problems superior to the approach employing force and violence. Hence, by removing war as an instrument of national policy and fostering an international environment against the use of physical force, nations are forced to seek these non-violent solutions and, in turn, achieve a higher good. The non-violent, but active resistance tradition coined by Mohatma Ghandi is a great example of how a peaceful alternative is sought to actively and vigorously combat evil. Regardless of whether this presumption of a peaceful alternative is well heeded, pacifism implicitly requires the existence of this alternative so that pacifism can legitimately and responsibly declare all wars immoral and try to eradicate them on that ground. In the modern age and a marketplace for ideas, only time can tell whether pacifism will succeed in achieving its goal.

Realism is silent on the moral basis of war. Indeed, the use of force is not categorically preferred or disfavored. Realism does not seem to take a moral stand on violence because the use of physical force is only meaningful to realism to the extent of the gains and losses stemmed from it. Realists find a common currency, dubbed as interest, to commonly denominate all relevant factors in the war calculation. In other words, realism is a worldview that embraces the idea that it is possible to weigh different interests on the same scale and therefore the theoretical and moral exercise of the legitimacy of war turns into an empirical question. To the extent that relevant factors can be commonly denominated, realism treats the war calculation exactly as a calculation: it internalizes the human suffering and the moral objection, but balances that with other legitimate interests, such as strategic gains, territorial integrity and prestige interest.

Whether this methodology is sound is up for debate, as commentators on both sides find it unacceptable to either comprise moral integrity for pure interests or comprise national interests for mere moral concerns. Nevertheless, insofar as realists’ methodology is acceptable, realism makes morality endogenous to its calculation. War becomes a rational and optimal choice, waged only when its aggregate benefits exceed its costs. Of course, problems quickly arise in regards to what are the appropriate weights to assign to each factor and when there is disagreement, who and how the disagreement should be resolved. If and when these problems are resolved satisfactorily, realism enables a nation to maximize its own interests, weighing across a variety of factors. Then the war calculation turns into an effort to conceptually decide what factors are relevant and empirically how much weight to assign to each factor.

When morality becomes endogenous to the war calculation, an independent discourse around morality becomes futile. Walzer acutely summarizes this curious aspect of realism by asserting that it is “a denial… of the meaningfulness of moral argument.” Especially when the prevailing morality differs from nation to nation, “moral discourse is always suspect, and war is only an extreme case of the anarchy of moral meanings.” Indeed, when nations embrace different moral standards and assign different weights to the importance of morality in their separate calculations, the realist framework might lead to different and conflicting outcomes, depending on which nation’s set of factors and weights it employs. A rational decision to wage war from nation A’s perspective might be completely irrational, viewed from nation B’s perspective. In the lead-up to WWII, the United States’ response to the situation in Europe is a great example. When the war broke out in Europe in 1939, the isolationists in the U.S. had the upper hand in the public debate and kept America out of the war until the Pearl Harbor attack in 1941. Since the prevailing morality at the beginning of the war favored isolationism, the outcome of the realist calculation was at odds with what the Ally nations might have preferred. Even within the U.S., various people had different policy preferences, or in the pacifist language, a different set of weights for each factor. President Roosevelt said even before major combats broke up in 1937 that:

Innocent peoples are being cruelly sacrificed to a greed for power and supremacy...Let no one imagine that America will escape...There is no escape through mere isolation or neutrality...War is a contagion, whether it be declared or not. It seems unfortunately true that the epidemic of lawlessness is spreading. When an epidemic of physical disease starts to spread, the community joins in a quarantine of the patients in order to protect the health of the community against the spread of the disease. I call today for a similar quarantine. A quarantine of the lawless, a quarantine of those that threaten world peace.

The democratic process provides a forum for realism to work out the internal difference over preferences for weights and factors, but the case-by-case nature of such a process makes it almost unworkable on an international basis, not to mention each nation’s difference in their moral standards.

Realists live in the present as much as pacifists live in the future. While pacifists are aspired to a world with peace on earth, realists argue that given the “anarchy of moral meanings,” the best we can do today is to let diplomacy have its turn, but when that fails to resolve the disputes, war and a simple knockout with physical force are rational choices rather than waiting for the divergence of moral meanings to sort themselves out. It is no surprise then that realists always resort to “a necessity of nature” defense to justify their causes for war.
As evidenced in the Melian dialogue, part of that nature is unmistakably self-interest. The Athenians argued forcefully that it is a sign of weakness and undermines their credibility if Athens failed to bring the acropolis of Melos into its empire. From the Athenian perspective, it is only moral to maximize its own interest even at the cost of Melians’ freedom. Indeed, in an “anarchy of moral meanings,” who are we to judge whose version of morality is correct or superior to others? But invariably, we do judge, as does Walzer, who questions whether this depiction of anarchy is accurate since “[m]oral talk is coercive; one thing leads to another.” It is the common experience by people of all nations and all faiths that commonly denominate these moral talks and that experience is the touchstone of a universal morality that people of all faiths can abide to. If Walzer is right and the anarchy of moral meanings is an illusion, perhaps what contributes to that illusion is merely a lack of forum for these discourses to take roots in international affairs.

C. Just War Theory Provides a Narrative to Minimize All Incidents of War

Struggling to find a balance between pacifism and realism is Just War Theory. It is an uneasy admission to the fact that certain natural and well-recognized rights are worth defending in the face of an aggression of force despite the atrocities that warfare invariably brings. It is not easy to define what interests and rights are so fundamental that they can transcend our fear for war though. In that sense, the line drawing engaged in Just War Theory is less morally coercive, but more a reflection of reality. Judged by its effect, if the Just War Theory project succeeded in serving as a basis to promote just wars and limit the unjust ones, Just War Theory would provide a narrative to minimize the incidents of all wars.

Stanley Hauerwas powerfully argues in his book Should War be Eliminated? that in spite of the Christian belief that war is “always the result of sin (a fact [Christians] continue to presume, and it is a presumption consistent with the natural law basis of the just-war tradition)… war is a morally positive institution.” Individuals’ sinful nature or even that of a collectivity certainly plays a role in causing war, it however cannot “by itself explain both war and peace, except by the simple statement that man’s nature is such that sometimes he fights and sometimes he does not.” Instead, war is a “positive moral institution” in the sense that it is a rational way to reconcile certain conflicts between communities. These communities “exist on the basis of shared public concern… [and] must justify its own interests and purposes in terms of its particular history and situation.” Hauerwas’s theory shows a clear break from pacifism, which passes a strong negative moral judgment against the war institution. Hauerwas’s assertion, on the other hand, believes that war is a “morally positive institution” in the sense that it is merely a vehicle that carries out the underlying conflicts and these underlying conflicts are products of the “particular history and situation.” Moral judgments can be formed based on the particular history and situation, but the war itself is simply a real world manifestation of the underlying problem.

Taking a moral position based on the particular history and situation invariably rolls conventions, common sense and other trademarks of the time into the moral discourse. This again is a different approach compared to pacifism and realism. Pacifism simply takes a strong moral view, namely, all wars are so evil that we must do everything in our power to stop all of them indiscriminately. Once this moral position is established, everything else naturally flows as a coercive moral authority. As long as logic holds, pacifism will arrive at the same conclusions at all times and at all places. Realism, too, is conceptually coherent. It sets a clear goal in maximizing national interests and everything else simply follows based on this goal. As discussed in the last section, there can be disagreement over the empirical conclusions on the factors to consider and the weights to assign to each factor, but realism as a theory remains loyal to its goal of maximizing national interests and facilitates the public discourse to achieve this goal. Just War Theory is unique compared to these schools of thought. It is almost a commonsense approach judged by its just cause requirement in the jus ad bellum doctrine. What consists of just cause is one of the most important components of Just War Theory, but Just War Theory leaves that question unanswered, inviting the public discourse and the prevailing morality of the day to interject into the just war calculus. Therefore, Just War Theory can move its division line between just and unjust wars from time to time and is usually in synchronization with the predominant worldview of the time.

In addition to serving the popular wisdom of the time, Just War Theory manifests a narrative to minimize all incidents of war in its effect. By bifurcating wars into two camps, just war theory essentially declares that certain wars, fought for specific reasons and conducted in a specific way, are moral and should receive international support whereas any other incidents of war should be condemned. This distinction allows international law, the public and the relevant authorities to have a theoretical basis to deter the immoral wars before they take place, rally support against them during the war and punish the leaders of unjust wars in the aftermath. This bifurcation also lends moral support for the just camp by postulating just causes and guiding the code of conduct during the warfare with the hope that only under very limited circumstances will community leaders attempt to use physical force to settle conflicts.
This bifurcation approach is attractive not because of its appeal to justice and morality, but because we hope it can reduce violence, by cutting back total incidents of war, and in the meantime, maintain international order as we know it. As discussed earlier, a parallel example of this bifurcation approach can be found within most nation states where the government monopolizes the legitimate use of physical force. After centuries of human development, we have not made obsolete the use of force and violence, but rather reserved the right to use force as a rational method to resolve disagreements in limited cases. Nation states publicly enact penal codes and use them to coerce orderly behavior in order for people to live in a harmonious society and function together in a cooperative model for everyone’s gain. By centralizing the use of force, a line is drawn between the government using physical force strictly according to the law and all other violent incidents. This way, the legal use of force remains available as an option to settle disagreements whereas society can work together to minimize all other incidents of violence. The end vision is certainly that within a nation state, all private use of violence is deterred and public use is not longer needed except for its deterrence effect. Under this model, not only is force available as a rational choice to resolve differences and conflicts, but it is also the guarantor of peace and its successful use will hopefully lead to a world where force is no longer needed, except for in the books.
Similarly, the Just War narrative that separates the just and unjust wars will have similar effects. Once this framework is established, the world can work together to eliminate or at least minimize incidents of unjust wars. On the other hand, the end vision for the just war framework is not a world without violence. Wars with just causes and conducted according to the just war teachings are not only permitted under this framework, but if just causes are of a deterrent nature, Just War Theory can achieve exactly the same goal as what penal codes do within a country’s borders.

As Just War Theory was first articulated by Augustus, and then later augmented by Aquainas, just causes for war heavily depends on religious, mostly Christian, morality and focuses on substantive causes clearly derived from religious doctrines. This reliance on religious doctrines helps to legitimize just war claims and draws upon moral beliefs indoctrinated in the population at large through centuries of religious teaching. However, it also leaves out any room for procedural solutions to decide whether a cause is just or not because religious doctrines tend to give clear and definitive answers. Indeed from a religious perspective and using the coercive moral standards, whether a cause is just or not should not be subject to the scrutiny of the international community.

This lack of procedural solutions to decide the just nature of a war, however, might be at odds with the narrative to describe Just War Theory as a theoretical framework to allow war as a rational means to settle conflicts in limited circumstances if it is difficult to define these circumstances to a level of precision to allow exactly the wars we would otherwise call just. Indeed, the success of the Just War Theory project, in this narrative, is measured by how effective it is to deter unjust wars, defined by irrational use of physical force when alternatives are both rational and abundant. Its success also relies on Just War Theory’s ability to include those incidents where war is a rational means to maintain the international order, as we know it. Nevertheless, before we see whether this narrative is consistent with the moral ethos of the just war tradition, we must conduct a thought experiment to see whether there are indeed circumstances where we think war is rational and just, but are unable to substantively define it ex ante.

II. Cooperation Can Be A Source of Conflicts as Well

Self-interest is commonly thought of as the major source of conflicts between nation states. The Athenians invaded Melos in order to solidify its influence abroad; the Mongols were famous for plundering the wealth of their neighboring states; a long series of wars were fought during the era of colonization to gain entrance to foreign markets, take control of the supply of natural resources and sometimes to enslave a people. Similar examples of warfare to promote self-interests have littered the entire human history. Left in isolation, a country’s military prowess is the only effective deterrence against aggression.

A. Cooperation is a Superior Model to Isolation in Maintaining International Order

Since isolation may lead to instability, cooperation is naturally thought of as the better alternative. Indeed, whether it is cooperation through a multilateral defense treaty or a simple trade and economic alliance, there is always a positive influence on international relations through a few different mechanisms. The balance of power doctrine, commonly adopted among the European nations starting in the 16th century, is a good example of using a cooperative model in foreign policy to preserve peace. England was the forerunner in formulating this policy:

The continental policy of England was fixed. It was to be pacific, mediating, favorable to a balance, which should prevent any power from having a hegemony on the continent or controlling the Channel coasts. The naval security of England and the balance of power in Europe were the two great political principles which appeared in the reign of Henry VIII and which, pursued unwaveringly, were to create the greatness of England.

By juggling between alliances to always side with the weaker, England prevented either Germany or France from gaining hegemonic power. With roughly balanced power on both sides, neither was certain about the outlook of a large-scale war and was therefore incentivized to find alternative solutions for their disputes. Bismarck is another avid supporter of the balance of power doctrine. With careful maneuvering, he created the League of the Three Emperors in 1873 because in his view, it is beneficial “in a world of fiver powers ‘try to be a trois.’” Balance of power enables small nations to increase the effectiveness of their military deterrence. Its fluid nature also ascertains that the overall balance is roughly maintained at all times, or can be rebalanced with relative ease. Cooperation under this model does not always eliminate skirmishes, but helps to prevent clashes between the big powers, which often prove to be of much graver consequences.

Economic cooperation through trade is another way to deter war, but by increasing mutual understanding and by raising the ante of the economic cost of a full-scale fallout. David Ricardo theoretically proves that trade is not a zero sum game where one country’s gain is another’s loss. Instead, trade allows every country to specialize in what it naturally fits best to do and generates more wealth than each country would be able to if left in isolation. In essence, Ricardian economics establishes the notion of comparative advantage where even if one country is better at making everything, trade still allows it to free its labor to focus on the product that it is best at making. This division of labor theory in the international arena is no different from the same argument made within the borders of a country. Since Ricardo’s logic is shown to be correct inside a country, there is no reason to expect it to break down when economic theories are extended across artificial borders dividing one country from another.
Trade and economic success are certainly not the entire story. Social and economic interactions make it more likely for countries to understand each other’s cultures and values. In addition, trade removes a number of causes for war, such as access to other countries’ natural resources and access to their markets, because instead of fighting a war for these economic reasons, a country may now focus on making something it can sell to others so that it can, in return, purchase the raw material, sources of energy and other products that it desires. Unlike the cooperative model through military alliances, economic connections and trade does not strengthen military deterrence. Instead, it provides an alternative to achieve many of the same goals that wars set out to achieve. In addition, countries must risk the prospect of foregoing the economic benefits that trade enables them to enjoy based on the Ricardian theory. A more subtle point is that since many people, such as those in the export industry and the merchants, benefit disproportionately from trade, in a modern state that assumes a republican form of government, they will be the loudest protesters against a war with trade partners. Thomas Friedman in his book The Lexus and Olive Trees articulates the famous Golden Arches Theory of Conflict Prevention where he notes that “No two countries that both had McDonald's had fought a war against each other since each got its McDonald's.” There is certainly only very tenuous causal relations between having a McDonald’s restaurant and fighting a war against each other, but the effect of trade in promoting peace should not be underestimated. Countries remain self-interested. What trade has managed to do is to align a country’s self-interest with that of international peace because only in peace can countries freely trade with each other and benefit from that trade as a result.

B. States Withdrawing from the Collaborative Model De-stablize the Entire System

Cooperation is, however, no panacea for all the ills inflicted by isolation and self-interest. Despite being a superior model than isolation, it is not a stable equilibrium of the world in the sense that a small perturbation away from this equilibrium can correct itself by pulling the world back into this equilibrium. For example, the complex alliance that Bismarck endeavored to put together did not survive his departure. Keeping the Russians away from the French was the one thing that Bismarck did everything within his power to maintain, but in one stroke, Wilhelm II changed the course of Germany’s foreign policy by distancing the Russians and signing a treaty with the Great Britain. The balance of power model was replaced by Wilhelm II’s desire for expansion to protect Germany’s “place in the sun.” A change of heart dooms the entire framework and a catastrophic war ensues.

As an unstable equilibrium, the paramount danger facing a cooperative model is that an individual country tries to move away from this model for its own short-term gain. Withdrawing from cooperation need not always have devastating consequences. Indeed, if Luxemburg decided to quit the World Trade Organization, there might be some rippling effects on economies around the world, but its negative effects would be limited in scope and temporary in nature. It does weaken the cooperative framework somehow, but does not fundamentally alter the structure of cooperation. In other words, the equilibrium is still unstable, but in the Luxemburg quitting the WTO example, there is a second best equilibrium not so far away from the original one. Nevertheless, this is not always the case.
Rousseau’s famous stag hunt dilemma illustrates exactly the disaster that can be caused by abandoning the cooperative model. Kenneth Waltz recapitulates Rousseau’s hare-stag hypothetical:

Assume that five men who have acquired a rudimentary ability to speak and to understand each other happen to come together at a time when all of them suffer from hunger. The hunger of each will be satisfied by the fifth part of a stag, so they ‘agree’ to cooperate in a project to trap one. But also the hunger of any one of them will be satisfied by a hare so, as a hare comes within reach, one of them grabs it. The defector obtains the means of satisfying his hunger but in doing so permits the stag to escape. His immediate interest prevails over consideration for his fellow.

This stag hunt example captures a fundamental problem where the opportunity cost of joining a cooperative project is one’s ability to act alone. Failing the goal of that cooperative project necessarily means that one is even much worse off than if he could have done it by himself. But if the cooperation already exists, then it is within each participant’s interest to prevent others from withdrawing from the cooperation if doing so significantly undermines the goal of the collective.

This problem is by no means unique to stag hunting. Modern game theorists have noted numerous examples of our inability to maintain the cooperative model despite its apparent superiority to other scenarios. For instance, in the wake of professional hockey player Teddy Green’s 1969 head injury, Newsweek stated:
Players will not adopt helmets by individual choice for several reasons. Chicago star Bobby Hull cites the simplest factor: “Vanity.” But many players honestly believe that helmets will cut their efficiency and put them at a disadvantage, and others fear the ridicule of opponents. The use of helmets will spread only through fear caused by injuries like Green’s – or through a rule making them mandatory.... One player summed up the feelings of many: “It’s foolish not to wear a helmet. But I don't – because the other guys don't. I know that’s silly, but most of the players feel the same way. If the league made us do it, though, we'd all wear them and nobody would mind.”

Professional hockey players’ failure to come to an individual decision exemplifies the perverted interest here. It seems only two scenarios are attainable: either no one wears a helmet or everyone wears a helmet. With a clear-cut dichotomy like this, hockey players are stuck in the equilibrium of not wearing helmets without external enforcement.
A more salient example is the moral dilemma facing the scientists who built the atomic bomb. The world would be better off without the bomb. But if some rogue countries moved away from this model by initiating a research program to make atomic bombs, everyone with the same capabilities would rush to make the a-bomb. Indeed, it is better to have the a-bomb than not having it if your enemy has a chance of obtaining it. It is therefore an extraordinary act for the world to come together to enter the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (the “NPT”). There are currently 189 signatory countries to the treaty where five of them publicly admit that they have nuclear weapons. Even before NPT was signed, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) had in place a secret nuclear weapon sharing agreements whereby the United States agreed to deploy and store nuclear weapons in other NATO countries. It was a cold war common defense strategy against the U.S.S.R., who also had a very strong nuclear capability. By including NATO countries into this same defense network, the U.S. prevents those non-nuclear powers in Europe from developing their own nuclear capabilities and those existing nuclear powers from manufacturing more warheads. In spite of deploying these nuclear weapons to other countries, the U.S. remained control of all of them and there was no transfer of weapons or technology of any kind. Cooperation has again saved the world from a downward spiral where every country enters into a race to obtain nuclear capabilities where we would be living under constant fear today, knowing that it would only take one ruthless leader to destroy the entire international order.

However, the NPT does not rid us of all fears. This again is an example of unstable equilibrium where if some states move away from this cooperative model, it will have an avalanche effect on all other states, essentially dismantling this cooperative framework. For example, India had never been a signatory country to the NPT and launched its first nuclear test in 1974. As a result, its contentious neighbor, Parkistan, never joined this treaty, either, and tested its own nuclear weapons in 1998. Shortly after, Libya was discovered in violation of the NPT when the United States intercepted the illegal transport of Pakistani-designed centrifuge parts sent from Malaysia as part of A. Q. Khan’s proliferation ring. Libya later agreed to terminate all its nuclear programs, but did leave the world wondering what would have happened if it was not caught violating the NPT.

One interesting episode was North Korea’s withdrawal from the NPT. North Korea ratified the NPT in 1985, but withdrew in 2003 as it had started an illegal uranium enrichment program. However, contrary to what the unstable equilibrium theory would predict, North Korea’s neighbor states and historical enemies, such as South Korea and Japan, did not rush to develop their own nuclear weapons. There are a few other factors at play. First of all, there is a large technology imbalance in the region. It will be years before North Korea can successfully develop its nuclear weapons and manufacture the launching system to pose a serious threat to the region. But on the other hand, Japan, for example, has a very extensive nuclear program for its energy consumption and is widely believed to have the technology, raw material and capital to develop nuclear weapons in six months to a year’s time. In addition, the six party talks held among North Korea, South Korea, Japan, Russia and China is using diplomatic means and economic incentives to force North Korea to abandon its nuclear program. All these efforts reaffirm the central thesis of the stag hunt problem, namely, in order for an unstable equilibrium to remain in force, external and credible forces are needed to raise the exit barrier and to deter even the most irrational and ruthless participants from attempting to destabilize the system.

C. Wars are A By-Product of the Effort to Maintain the International Cooperation Model

This unique feature of cooperation poses a difficult moral choice. Hauerwas succinctly asserts that some forms of “war is an unavoidable by-product of our cooperation. While in itself morally ambiguous, as a by-product of cooperation, its elimination would mean as well the extinction of cooperation. Therefore we should not seek to eliminate war.” Indeed, war as an institution, in spite of being a human one, is neither morally good nor bad. It is the human conceptualization of war that gives it its moral significance. From this perspective:
We can appreciate the ambiguity we often feel about war as an institution. We do not generally seek war; we think of it as something we choose when we have no other choice. Even though war is clearly human activity, we tend to conceive it as an external agent, a fate that we had not willed but which we cannot but follow. It is just in the “nature” of things. War is finally no one’s fault; it is an unsolicited yet unavoidable consequence of our shared activities. War in this sense is simply beyond good and evil.

Under the premise that war might be a positive moral institution, we must review whether war can be used morally as a last resort in the stag hunt example in order to maintain a cooperation that was entered into willingly, but circumstances or even minds change over time, threatening to dismantle the entire cooperative system. A concrete example is that in order to curtail nuclear proliferation, whether it is just to deploy physical force to stop a country from setting off a chain reaction that will eventually lead to the destruction of the entire nonproliferation framework. Indeed, since we know the stag hunt scenario does not have any self-corrective force and that a certain state of the world is much more preferred than its clear alternative, perhaps it is a rational choice to use drastic measures, limited in its reach and scope, as a deterrence to provide for the corrective incentive in case an unforeseen event pushes the world away from the cooperative equilibrium. To make this deterrence credible, physical forces have to be used sometimes as the very last resort.

War fought for this reason is therefore to provide for the stability of a cooperative model that history itself has validated for us as superior to isolation. For the same reason, we acquiesce to a government using force against its own citizens strictly based on publicly pre-enacted penal codes because force is required in order to coerce individual behavior to accord with standards required by a public life. In a way, having a public life at all is a human experiment that, we fundamentally believe, is superior to its alternatives. It is the collective and its will to organize society into a large network of relationships and interactions that underscore our experience today. In Rousseau’s term, being subject to that force is part of the social contract we each have entered.

Extending this analogy to the international arena, it is noted that certainly not any collaborative treaty should be raised to the level where withdrawing from it should be basis for the use of coercive force. The following conditions have to be met: there needs to be a pre-existing war related treaty ratified by almost every nation state in the world; this treaty makes the world a significantly safer place; this treaty would be reduced to rubbles in a short time even if only a small number of signatory states decide to withdraw; a world without this treaty would face significantly more danger; most signatory nations, in reliance on this treaty, have significantly ordered its public and private life accordingly, such as giving up its own nuclear program; those states withdrawing from the treaty are not doing that by an urgent necessity. One immediate problem with these conditions is that there are so many subjective terms that even if we could successfully define them now, we cannot update them timely to accord with the prevailing understandings of the time when they are invoked. A public forum with procedural hurdles must therefore go with these conditions in order to decide what these terms all mean. The only treaty that fits the definition here is the Treaty on Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, but it still helps to define the treaty in broad terms to account for other similar treaties in the future. Of course, this does not mean that Just War Theory, especially the set of just causes, must expand to incorporate wars fought to protect international cooperation, but to realize the narrative of minimizing all incidents of wars, Just War Theory must account for those deterrent uses of force if in effect, they help to promote the same goal. In addition, such use of force, especially in the nuclear non-proliferation context, is consistent with a strict moral view.

III. Wars Fought to Protect International Cooperation are Moral

Section I reviewed the effect of the just war project, namely, to separate just wars from unjust ones so that one camp might receive moral justification and the other camp can be minimized or eradicated. For Just War Theory to be effective, it must focus on both goals simultaneously. If we are to believe that certain wars fought in order to keep international cooperation are a rational last resort for the cooperative model to work, we are admitting to the fact that these wars should not be eliminated, as also suggested by Hauerwas when he claims these wars are a by-product of cooperation. As such, judged purely by the effect of the just war project, those wars fought to upkeep the cooperative model seem to belong to the just camp because it would otherwise run contradictory to the thesis of Just War Theory to reserve war as a last resort where it is necessary and rational.

However, that does not complete the just war analysis, as the moral justification of Just War Theory requires the protection of a significant natural right so as to consider the use of physical force as a last resort. Wars fought to protect international cooperation satisfy this test as well for three major reasons: First, in order to have the right to liberty in the international community, there must be the inherent requirement for countries to act without significant harm to others and within the accepted rules of conduct for the benefit of the general public; second, these wars as defined are in essence preventative wars to save the world of catastrophic consequences; third, since individual nations must withdraw from a treaty without compelling reasons first, these wars gain moral justification from correcting a wrong, practically often committed by ruthless despots.

As Walzer points out, “the duties and rights of states are nothing more than the duties and rights of the men who compose them.” For John Locke, individual’s rights to liberty is summarized as “a liberty to follow my own will in all things, where the rule prescribes not; and not be subject to the inconstant, uncertain, unknown, arbitrary will of another man.” Indeed, in concept, individual’s liberty has its limits: one must be restrained if his exercise of his liberty significantly hinders another’s ability to exercise his fundamental right. In practice, such restraint should not be enforced unless the behavior is clearly and explicitly prescribed by the laws. It is arguable whether these limits to liberty abruptly stop at the borders of a country in the sense that it is not repugnant to moral values if country A exercises its liberty right at the expense of B’s. Nevertheless, situations are quite different when there is an international treaty, ratified by almost all nations, regulating such behavior.

For Rousseau, this would be a perfect example of a partial “social contract” on a specific issue and a “general will” is formed when this contract is adopted by essentially the entire world. In the case of the NPT, since this “social contract” is formed, for this contract to have any practical meaning, each country’s liberty interest must be restrained by the clear prohibitions codified in this contract. A war fought as a last resort to punish those that withdraw from the NPT and coerce their rejoining this treaty is nothing more than protecting the right to liberty of those countries remaining faithful to the cause of the NPT because withdrawal without a compelling reason is explicitly prohibited and is not considered a free exercise of the withdrawing country’s right to liberty. This withdrawal also recklessly interferes with others’ right to liberty because they are now coerced into starting their own nuclear programs out of security concerns. No country should be subject to such coercion especially given the fact that the NPT is in place to prevent just that. On this one issue of nuclear nonproliferation, by ratifying the NPT, “each… puts his person and all his power in common under the supreme direction of the general will, and, in our corporate capacity, [every country] receive[s] each member as an indivisible part of the whole.” The NPT sets the restraints and boundaries of each country’s right to exercise its liberty interest. And it is only moral to defend these boundaries for the survival of the right to liberty.

Second, these wars fought as a last to save a cooperative model are in essence preventative. Preventative wars are historically considered immoral because they “respond[] to a distant danger, a matter of foresight and free choice” and they are “fought to maintain the balance, to stop what is thought to be an even distribution of power from shifting into a relation of dominance and inferiority.” But some procedural hurdles can offset these concerns. First of all, if such wars are to be fought, the security concerns are as real as the majority of the world is willing to believe it. That is a very high bar to reach and suffer much less from the subjectivity and arbitrariness that the justification of a preventative war from one single state often embodies. Second, the universal ratification of the NPT shows that the current state of the world, or “the balance,” is strongly preferred by the entire world. There is an element of randomness in which nation currently owns nuclear weapons, but by freezing up the status quo where it was in 1968, the entire world reveals its true preference that keeping it where it is despite all the shortcomings is better than disturbing “the balance.” Third, the threat of nuclear destruction and the magnitude of damage ensued from a nuclear attack necessarily mean that nuclear proliferation needed to be contained with much more agility. It is no surprise that President Kennedy used almost all the power to his disposal in the Cuban Missile Crisis. The prospect of a nuclear war cannot be dealt with lightly and moral standards must be adapted to be proportional to the danger faced.

This does not mean that, once ratified, nations may never withdraw from these treaties. The NPT, for example, provides:

Each Party shall in exercising its national sovereignty have the right to withdraw from the Treaty if it decides that extraordinary events, related to the subject matter of this Treaty, have jeopardized the supreme interests of its country. It shall give notice of such withdrawal to all other Parties to the Treaty and to the United Nations Security Council three months in advance. Such notice shall include a statement of the extraordinary events it regards as having jeopardized its supreme interests.

The terms of withdrawal turn on whether there are extraordinary events that have jeopardized one nation’s supreme interests. However, every other nation will have a view on whether these reasons are compelling and whether they amount to the extraordinary status, whether they have jeopardized one nation’s interests and whether these interests are supreme. Ideally, the NPT should have included a provision to arbitrate the withdrawal decision at a forum, such as the General Council of the United Nations. Despite the fact that the NPT does not formally require other nation’s approval in order to withdraw, public discourse holds a separate scrutiny on the reasons laid out to justify the withdrawal. If an international consensus is reached that the withdrawal is arbitrary, reckless and without compelling reasons, the withdrawing party is at fault for not complying with the requirements of the NPT. This fault also shifts the moral superiority to the parties attempting to compel these nations to return to the NPT framework as the Six Party Talk has tried to achieve exactly on this point.
With this moral support, coupled with the necessity of these wars, there is a compelling case for Just War Theory to develop a set of procedural hurdles in order to account for their just causes.

IV. Procedural Hurdles Must Be Established in Order to Safeguard the Just Nature of These Wars

An aggression-based Just War Theory has a unique appeal because, inter alia, the delineation between aggression and non-aggression corresponds to worldly and physical events independent of subjective views. This delineation not only accords with public sensibility rooted in the self-defense aspect of Just War Theory, but also makes the justice calculus easy to administrate. Indeed, with such a clear divide, all the disputes over who has the moral high ground can, in theory, be easily resolved. The country that first commits an act of physical aggression forfeits her claim to the moral legitimacy regardless of the weight of other factors that might otherwise lend her moral support. The Bay of Pigs Invasion helped to illustrate this point. For those that lived in the free world, any effort to topple a totalitarian communist regime would probably be considered justified. But the United States never publicly supported the Bay of Pigs Invasion, led by Cuban exiles in order to overthrow the Castro government in Cuba. President Kennedy made sure that U.S. support was kept to a level where the entire operation could appear to be planned solely by the Cuban exiles so that the United States would be able to plausibly deny its involvement in this operation. The U.S. certainly did not want to agitate the Soviet Union to risk the prospect of World War III, but it also shows that first aggression carries so much negative moral weight that regardless of the cause the war fights for, no one is willing to risk it if there are better alternatives. This signifies the triumph of Just War Theory that postulates the fundamental belief that there is always a better solution to disputes than a simple showdown of physical forces. But this postulation is not bulletproof, especially in the nuclear age.

Before the dawn broke on the morning of September 7, 2007, four Israeli fighter jets “crossed into Syrian airspace and carried out a secret bombing mission on the banks of the Euphrates River, about ninety miles north of the Iraq border.” By any measure of international law, this is an act of war that would entitle Syria to a legitimate military response. Curiously, it was not the first time that Israel attacked another country without any prior provocation. In 1981, Israel destroyed Iraq’s nuclear reactor in Osirak near Baghdad and afterwards, not only did Israel not try to conceal this unprovoked attack, but it instead showed pictures of the strike and allowed the pilots to be interviewed by the media. From the Just War perspective, how Iraq and Syria reacted to these attacks is less interesting than how the international community acquiesced Israel’s attacks. There seems to be something uniquely different about the attacks made to neutralize nuclear weapons.

There is no doubt that Iraq and Syria were in violation of the NPT if they were indeed developing nuclear weapons. However, the interesting question is not whether their nuclear threat was real, but whether breaching an international treaty gives rise to the right of first attack to those whose safety is threatened by this breach. In addition, even without such a breach, if one country decides to develop an attack weapon so powerful as nuclear weapons, those threatened by this unilateral move need to be protected by Just War Theory. For example, North Korea is not a signatory country to the NPT since it withdrew from the treaty in 2003. Its neighbor countries, such as Japan, might feel so threatened one day that it follows the clear example set by Israel and tries to neutralize North Korea’s nuclear weapons itself. Even if Japan does not strike first, it might want to employ a nuclear deterrence strategy by either developing nuclear technology itself or turning to the United States for a definitive security guarantee in the event of a nuclear attack from North Korea.

Nuclear weapons change the whole aggression based calculus because the grave consequences of a nuclear attack significantly raises the cost of any miscalculation. In other words, no country can afford to cede the right of first attack if it is facing credible nuclear threat. Just War Theory must cope with this reality in order to stay relevant

Just War Theory must adapt to the nuclear age in the sense that certain types of aggression needs to be permitted so as to maintain the current world order. It is therefore essential for the Just War Theory to include additional criteria to account for incidents where aggression might not be the best indicator and subjective standards must be employed to justify a war. In order to safeguard the just nature and mitigate the likelihood of subjective influence in these wars, it is essential to have a worldly forum, such as the General Assembly of the United Nations, where the just cause of a war is examined. Of course, there are many other possibilities for effective procedural hurdles. Instead of designing a set of perfect procedures here, I will instead talk about some important features that these procedures must have.

Before the Iraq war, Secretary of State, Colin Powell, made his case in front of the U.N. to win international support. Of course, the U.S. had planned to go ahead with the war with or without the support of the U.N. The procedural hurdles that will work in our case require that the U.N. either sanctions a war plan or vociferously opposes it. It allows no middle ground, as it is either a just cause that for world peace and stability, a small scale and limited war must be fought or the cause is less than just or there are still hopes for other measures.

In addition to a definitive answer, these procedural hurdles must be structured in order to let Reason, not coalitions of mutual interests, prevail. For any country to support or oppose a war plan, they must use Reason to make their case. Then this process itself is a mechanism to induce the world to converge onto a model where states gain legitimacy for their governing scheme by way of Reason, rather than through terror, fear or other coercive means. The triumph of Reason will be the hallmark of the ideal envisioned by Kant in his pamphlet Perpetual Peace. For Kant, in a world where Reason is the thread that binds a society together and all sovereigns assume a republican form of government, perpetual peace may be achieved simply because physical force is no longer needed as it is through Reason that we gain legitimacy and it is by resorting to Reason that disagreements and conflicts reach settlements. W.B. Gallie summarizes Kant’s vision succinctly in his book Philosophers of Peace and War that only with the triumph of Reason and by taking a “very long historical perspective” can countries come together to “be confined to the one paramount task of keeping the peace… as chose to sign a non-aggression treaty.” Similar to modern medicine that often puts out the symptoms before it treats the root of the ailment, by dictating the use of Reason in international affairs, it will hopefully induce the kind of sovereigns that Kant hoped for. At the very minimum, it will provide a basis to resolve international disputes with civility.

The decision mechanism should not be consensus based, but should be more stringent than a simple majority. To build a moral case, some might argue a consensus is necessary to gain the maximum legitimacy. But unfortunately, we live in a world where states have practical concerns and might let their immediate interests sway their moral obligations. To account for that, something short of a consensus should be adopted as the basis for a decision. A single majority vote, however, tends to err on the other side where manipulative or influential countries will use their power to build a coalition of simple majority.

Conclusion

Just war theory lends moral justification for fighting specific wars as a rational means to settle international disputes. It is just because these wars are fought to protect certain fundamental rights that we all hold dear to our hearts and are willing to consider the possibility of fighting a war in their defense. Once we realize that the cooperative world we live in today is superior to a world where states remain in isolation, we are accepting its by-product: those small scale and limited wars we may have to fight in order to make this cooperative model work. Despite the fact that reasonable minds often disagree on worldly issues, there are limited cases where a “general will” of the international community is formed in the format of a treaty, ratified by almost all countries. The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons is a perfect example. Protecting this “general will” suddenly becomes an important task especially if the alternative to the collaborative equilibrium we live in today significantly undermines the security and stability of the international community. Arguably, general wills are only formed in these scenarios because there is so much at stake to keep the world order as we know it even if that means to entrench the status quo into an international treaty, ratified by almost all countries.

Wars fought as an absolutely last resort to protect this world order are in perfect alignment with Just War Theory. Morally speaking, these wars are fought in protection of the right to liberty – individual’s right to be free of the coercion of precaution. In addition, the fault created by those countries withdrawing from these international treaties without compelling reasons lends further moral justification for these wars. Nevertheless, to determine whether it is a just cause or not in this subset of wars involves a lot of subjective and judgment calls. Since reasonable countries might disagree on the justness of a war in this subset, perhaps the most sensible thing to do is to use the United Nations. as a forum to build the moral support for such a cause. It is then the responsibility of Just War Theory to codify the procedural hurdles for a war to be considered just. In this nuclear age with an explosion of new technologies, only with a uniform approach to qualify the just causes of these wars, coupled with the other just war traditions, can we hope for the maximum moral support for the wars essential for the world to maintain its order.

Tuesday, January 29, 2008

David Brooks on Kennedy's endorsement of Obama

January 29, 2008
Op-Ed Columnist

The Kennedy Mystique

Something fundamental has shifted in the Democratic Party.

Last week there was the widespread revulsion at the Clintons’ toxic attempts to ghettoize Barack Obama. In private and occasionally in public, leading Democrats lost patience with the hyperpartisan style of politics — the distortion of facts, the demonizing of foes, the secret admiration for brass-knuckle brawling and the ever-present assumption that it’s necessary to pollute the public sphere to win. All the suppressed suspicions of Clintonian narcissism came back to the fore. Are these people really serving the larger cause of the Democratic Party, or are they using the party as a vehicle for themselves?

And then Monday, something equally astonishing happened. A throng of Kennedys came to the Bender Arena at American University in Washington to endorse Obama. Caroline Kennedy evoked her father. Senator Edward Kennedy’s slightly hunched form carried with it the recent history of the Democratic Party.

The Kennedy endorsements will help among working-class Democrats, Catholics and the millions of Americans who have followed Caroline’s path to maturity. Furthermore, here was Senator Kennedy, the consummate legislative craftsman, vouching for the fact that Obama is ready to be president on Day One.

But the event was striking for another reason, having to do with the confluence of themes and generations. The Kennedys and Obama hit the same contrasts again and again in their speeches: the high road versus the low road; inspiration versus calculation; future versus the past; and most of all, service versus selfishness.

“With Barack Obama, we will turn the page on the old politics of misrepresentation and distortion,” Senator Kennedy declared. “With Barack Obama, there is a new national leader who has given America a different kind of campaign — a campaign not just about himself, but about all of us,” he said.

The Clintons started this fight, and in his grand and graceful way, Kennedy returned the volley with added speed.

Kennedy went on to talk about the 1960s. But he didn’t talk much about the late-60s, when Bill and Hillary came to political activism. He talked about the early-60s, and the idealism of the generation that had seen World War II, the idealism of the generation that marched in jacket and ties, the idealism of a generation whose activism was relatively unmarked by drug use and self-indulgence.

Then, in the speech’s most striking passage, he set Bill Clinton afloat on the receding tide of memory. “There was another time,” Kennedy said, “when another young candidate was running for president and challenging America to cross a New Frontier.” But, he continued, another former Democratic president, Harry Truman, said he should have patience. He said he lacked experience. John Kennedy replied: “The world is changing. The old ways will not do!”

The audience at American University roared. It was mostly young people, and to them, the Clintons are as old as the Trumans were in 1960. And in the students’ rapture for Kennedy’s message, you began to see the folding over of generations, the service generation of John and Robert Kennedy united with the service generation of the One Campaign. The grandparents and children united against the parents.

How could the septuagenarian Kennedy cast the younger Clintons into the past? He could do it because he evoked the New Frontier, which again seems fresh. He could do it because he himself has come to live a life of service.

After his callow youth, Kennedy came to realize that life would not give him the chance to be president. But life did ask him to be a senator, and he has embraced that role and served that institution with more distinction than anyone else now living — as any of his colleagues, Republican or Democrat, will tell you. And he could do it because culture really does have rhythms. The respect for institutions that was prevalent during the early ’60s is prevalent with the young again today. The earnest industriousness that was common then is back today. The awareness that we are not self-made individualists, free to be you and me, but emerge as parts of networks, webs and communities; that awareness is back again today.

Sept. 11th really did leave a residue — an unconsummated desire for sacrifice and service. The old Clintonian style of politics clashes with that desire. When Sidney Blumenthal expresses the Clinton creed by telling George Packer of The New Yorker, “It’s not a question of transcending partisanship. It’s a question of fulfilling it,” that clashes with the desire as well.

It’s not clear how far this altered public mood will carry Obama in this election. But there was something important and memorable about the way the 75-year-old Kennedy communed and bonded with a rapturous crowd half a century his junior.

The old guy stole the show.

Thursday, November 29, 2007

Just War Theory

I am working on a research paper these days on just war theory. The idea is very simple. Just war theory is about the admission that wars cannot be eliminated, but its frequency can be minimized. In order to minimize wars, the just war theorists draw a line in the sand and call some wars just, the others unjust. Then with the power of moral debate and public discourse, hopefully the unjust ones can be eliminated. Or at least crippled as a result of lacking public support.

This is a fine cause. It is however interesting to see where that line in the sand is drawn. As of now, only self defense wars and certain humanitarian interventions are deemed just. This seems arbitrary. Rather than have a substantive set of war causes, the focus of my paper is to analyze the source of wars, see what can be eliminated and what cannot be, then based on that, I propose a set of procedural hurdles to qualify wars for being just.

To be specific, I offer that wars occur as a result of not just isolation, but cooperation as well. The fact that people rely on each other in order to achieve a greater good weaves a close knit social net among the nation states. But this cooperative model allows the possibility of self interested states backing out of the cooperation, leaving everyone else much worse off. Since the cooperative model is a more stable one that the isolated one, states should be just in using force to deter such reckless moves by individual states to leave the cooperation. Deterrence is only credible when force is actually deployed if the preset conditions are met.

An example I plan to give is the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. Everyone is better off with it. But backing out my those rogue states destabilizes the system, leading to a race to the bottom.

To account for this, just war theory must let the people of the time to decide whether certain causes are just. The UN provides a forum for this to be discussed. Therefore, we should create procedural hurdles that help to expand the set of just war causes to make it more flexible and to allow timely changes based on the prevailing morality at the time.

I am however running out of steam.. hope i can finish this paper on time.

Saturday, May 12, 2007

一个故事

写文章写了一半。心情乱糟糟的,也写不下去了。所以还是劳作些有意义的事情吧。
我想说一个芒果和麦兜的故事
芒果和麦兜老早就认识的。初中就是同班同学,大家一起玩着长大。麦兜对芒果有些蒙胧的好感,不过芒果只拿麦兜当作一个朋友来对待。麦兜的朋友丁丁很帅,毕业的时候芒果和丁丁开始谈朋友了。麦兜尽管心里有些难过,但都是蒙蒙隆隆的感情,摇摇头就忘了。高中麦兜去了一个新学校,每天忙着读书,生活非常滋润。
麦兜也忘了是怎样有和芒果遇上的。芒果要高考了,麦兜已经报送了。所以麦兜就提议帮芒果补课。天天能见到芒果,麦兜很开心。然后忽然就想起了原来对芒果的好感。好像真的有点喜欢这个小姑娘。具体的事情太久远了,都不记得了。但麦兜清楚的记得在芒果参加高考的时候,他等在路上,祝芒果好运,然后骑着车送她去考试。
考了几天就送了几天。哦对了,芒果填写志愿的时候,麦兜原来想叫她抱交大的。但芒果包了上外。不过麦兜有点混混厄厄的,也无所谓。麦兜的妈妈到问他了,说你这还花那么大功夫帮她干吗?其实麦兜傻傻的,只觉得在芒果需要帮助的时候出现,然后帮她一把,然后就好消失了。只记得一个插曲。芒果放榜前很患得患失,麦兜不停的劝他,并说芒果,你如果考补上还有我,我一定帮你直到考上。
那个时候因为经常见芒果,对芒果好感与日俱增。我们还一起去看了电影泰谈泥克号。也算是第一次date吧。但刚坐下,就发现郭,陈和汪坐在旁边。实在市太巧了。上海有那么多的电影院,怎么会凑到一起来得。看来命中注定芒果和麦兜是不会在一起的。
这一年麦兜过生日的时候芒果送给了他一个玉石的鱼。麦兜很喜欢,天天都带着。但是妈妈吃醋了。到现在还常常提起,说我不带她买的东西。
后来芒果考上了上外,因为两个学校离开很远,交往也不多。但麦兜心里常常会想芒果,芒果也知道麦兜的心思。时间过的很快,半年后麦兜决定申请去美国读书。忙着申请了一段时间后,麦兜要走了。心里有点放不下芒果,但两人根本没有date,所以麦兜还是混混厄厄的。临走前,芒果录了一盘磁带给麦兜,麦兜给芒果买了一辆脚踏车。芒果在麦兜上飞机前给了他一封信。信上说了许多事,麦兜现在都不记得了。有两三见是还有影象-芒果说他和一个朋友谈我,猜测我的性格。后来这个人变成了芒果的男朋友。另外,芒果说也没有什么好承诺的,但将来有机会的话说不定会走到一起。
初来美国,心里很孤单。麦兜靠者芒果的磁带入睡,感觉心和芒果的心靠的很近。但没过几月就听到了别的消息-丁丁和麦兜说芒果有别的男朋友了,妈妈也说再路上看到芒果拉着别人的手。麦兜一下就蒙了。但好像明明中有天意。收到消息前几天,麦兜踢球时摔了一教,把玉石的鱼的尾巴敲断了。受到消息后心很痛,但是阴差阳错的麦兜踢球摔段了腿。身体上的痛代替了心理上的。大学前两年腿脚都不方便,搞的什么都不想,把芒果也慢慢忘了。
这之后的几年芒果和麦兜的生命没有交集。有时侯会见面,但也没有什么可说的。
然后04年的夏天麦兜换工作了。趁工作间隙,麦兜去了次西藏。回来的时候在人间见了芒果。正好是芒果的生日,麦兜和她稍微庆祝了一下。芒果和麦兜说了她感情上的困惑。看来芒果的男朋友和她性格不配。麦兜记得回来还跟妈妈说:如果芒果嫁了这个人,会和你一样的。麦兜的爸爸也是个脾气古怪的人。不过麦兜马上要走了,也没怎么上心。
然后就是05年的夏天。麦兜回到中国工作了!第一次和芒果见面是在眼安路的卖捞火锅。(看来和卖这个字关系很深呀。)麦兜谈起了他和laurie纷纷呵呵的事。那时侯麦兜不太开心,因为刚和laurie分手。好像芒果也说起了他的事。以后见面芒果常说她的事。她和那时侯的男朋友关系不好,但芒果还是想嫁给他,因为他带他很好。我回来又和妈妈说:芒果不会幸福的。然后麦兜就又想起了高考时候的事。对啊,芒果需要帮助的时候,麦兜就应该出现,帮好她之后再从新消失。于是麦兜经常去找芒果玩。再北京上班也霉天给芒果打电话(这个习惯原来已经快两年了,怪不得前两天不打电话就浑身不舒服)麦兜的想法很简单-芒果应该知道生活可以是多开心的,这样她就不会走错了。麦兜的妈妈不同意,说别人结婚不结婚关你什么事。你有不乡跟别人抢女朋友,干吗要趟这次混水。麦兜摇摇头说,我要做的,你自己的婚姻不成工,就是因为嫁了个性格古怪的人。帮得到帮不到一回事,帮不帮是另外一回事。
芒果和麦兜一起去酒吧,一起跳舞。麦兜第一次亲了芒果的脸,在jazz酒吧。又一次试着亲了芒果的唇,在舞场,但是这次芒果推开了麦兜。
然后春节了,麦兜和芒果一起去看了场电影。出来的时候他们商量着去重庆玩。麦兜马上打电话定了票。但要出去之前老天爷干欲了。芒果突然胃痛,去不成了。麦兜一个人还是去了重庆。妈妈不太开心,说你怎么这么痴。这时候妈妈有丛另局那里听到一种说法。邻居的朋友和芒果的妈妈是好朋友。不知怎么谈起了我。芒果的妈妈告诉他的朋友说麦兜出国前很喜欢芒果,但是芒果把他甩了。妈妈听到了非常不开心。说你怎么这么贱。麦兜不管,别人说的是事实。那有什么大不了的。所以这次芒果不去重庆,妈妈就说,你看你看,别人对你没意思,你又自作多情了。麦兜在路上也不太开心。但是后来想想,芒果不喜欢他又怎样,本来他就只想帮帮芒果,最后芒果不跟他也没什么大不了的。一个人在重庆有点无聊,也不知到怎么会跑到这里来得。
回来后芒果和麦兜的关系还是老样子。然后3月底,麦兜邀请芒果去香港玩。芒果答应了。麦兜从重庆以来的不开心一扫而空。但老天有干欲了。麦兜因为工作的原因突然要回美国。所以香港没趣成。麦兜见不到芒果了,但心里希望芒果至少要离开现在的男人。
5/1劳动节的时候芒果去了普陀山,在回程的船上和男朋友分手了。她在船上给麦兜打电话。麦兜想老天再厉害,也打不过有心人。然后麦兜邀请芒果夏天去印度和尼破儿玩。其实到这个时候麦兜还没有说要想尽办发让芒果喜欢上他。只觉得出去玩完,能让芒果开心旧好了。
6月底,临行前,芒果突然又说不去了。妈妈说话了-你再贱回来也不好去找芒果了。麦兜想了想说,对啊,不见了。但芒果最后一刻还是决定和麦兜一起去。
在印度很开心。麦兜要让芒果完的开开心心的,所以订了最好的酒店,安排了丰富的行程。还记得是在mysore回bangalore的车上,芒果和麦兜谈了很久两人之间的事。要决定是不是在一起。麦兜要芒果用一天的时间决定。但芒果,直到这一刻,尽管麦兜心里喜欢你,但真的每奢望在一起。long distance不容易。麦兜自己也不敢尝试的。然后在bangalore的sheraton酒店,芒果说我们可以考虑开始。然后麦兜说芒果,我这么可爱,你不知不觉就会开始的。
然后到了delhi,晚上去aunt shashi家作客。麦兜开始展示他的口才。芒果明显无比崇拜。我记得这天晚上,芒果和麦兜睡在两张床上。芒果伸手过来拉麦兜,但拉着很累,麦兜就吧芒果拉倒了自己的床上。麦兜第一次真正的亲了芒果。心里的甜蜜啊,我到此刻还能想起。
然后他们去了加德满都。这是麦兜从出生到现在最开心的几天。拉着芒果到处玩,在酒店做了spa,吃了无数的芒果。le meridien, nagarkot, mount everest,似乎着是神仙过的日子。
然后麦兜带着芒果去了香港。麦兜因为上次没有带芒果去香港,所以一直想要完成这个愿望。再香港,麦兜快乐的收下了麦兜这个名字。
回到上海后,一天麦兜去芒果家,芒果轻声的说,麦兜我开始了。这是芒果第一次承认他不知不觉的爱上了麦兜。后来芒果马上去了新疆。芒果回来后为麦兜庆祝了他一辈子最开心的一个生日,再杭州。
这之后麦兜就回美国了。麦兜和芒果也开始了真正的long distance relationship. 但麦兜心里一直装着芒果,只要一想到他,就心里充满了甜蜜。他们每天通电话,以结相思之苦。
冬天很快到了。麦兜开开心心的回上海去看芒果。芒果还是很漂亮。麦兜牵着芒果的手,走在街上就觉得自己是最开心的人。看到麦兜这么喜欢芒果,妈妈也开始慢慢转变了。芒果和麦兜又一起去了泰国。看到了新年焰火。在一起泛舟湄公河的是后,麦兜撑不住时差,睡着了。但芒果只是耐心的靠在他肩上。
回到上海后麦兜也天天缠着芒果,但很快他要走了。这之后,芒果学会了做菜,做蛋糕,麦兜则天天盼着快点回去见芒果。
又是5/1,又是普陀山。真的有天意吗?这次芒果没有去,因为她要等麦兜回来一起去。然后他去打篮球,遇到了另外一个人。5/8,1点多,芒果打电话说,我遇到一个人,他喜欢我,我也喜欢他。麦兜蒙了。心丧欲死。大发脾气。5/10号,12:45,芒果打电话说,麦兜我们分开吧。
麦兜成人之后第一次感受撤心撤肺的痛。
在酒吧,一个女孩子拉着麦兜说他帅,麦兜说身谢谢就走开了。麦兜的朋友问他你对学校了的哪个女生感兴趣,麦兜想了半天说-真的不知道,心里一直装着芒果,从来没考虑过这样的问题。
麦兜不要就这样结束。现在都是成年人了,麦兜再受伤不会象以前那样在跑回来的。其实伤已经受了,但麦兜无法想像失去芒果。他宣布不管芒果说什么,他都要回去后给感情最后一个机会。他要认认真真的用感情去挽回芒果。其实他已经知道结果了。
麦兜很聪明的。但是麦兜必须要做。我们都离幸福只有一步之遥,尽管这一不看来是跳不过的,但麦兜还是要跳。

Thursday, May 10, 2007

i must document my feelings at this moment. i cannot remember the last time i ve been so emotionally distressed and utterly stunned. i used to believe that i was invincible. little did i know that no one could rise above the law of the cruel world. the wise used to say that only those that you care for can harm you the deepest. it is in the thounderous sound of snapping the once-uncompromiseable bond do i learn the truth in this wisdom. as tears go by and fears grow, darkness moves in to reign.

Who is it to blame? there is no doubt. could things have been different? i really doubt. you have seen traces of past evidence, but little did you care because you pompous jerk thought you are not one of the ordinary. perhaps you are not, but you are still mortal.

being mortal is perhaps our darkest spell. not in the context of life and death, not even in the sense of health and sickness. but the overflowing emtion of happiness, sadness, rage and fear is forever evasive, but an eternal pressence, transcending our existence, haunting even the once-thought immortal. the gate of rationality could not withstand the flood of love and sadness. Drenched and dread. i know what is the rational thing to do, but i cannot.

i keep saying it is not about what happened but about how to mitigate the problem and move forward. but how can i ignore the past and of what happened. it stands right in the way of the only path to save this once beautiful tale. i smash my head, and in moments of clear mind i try my hardest to save it. but as soon as emtion knows on the gate, a little mortal like me has no chance to be completely run over and to lose yet again in the eternal sadness and rage.

however hard you try, you may not get it. and even if you get it, the damage has been done and the bond will never be the same. if you take a step back, it is a bright new world out there. this will be the only rational thing to do, but i can't. i cannot even explain why.

love is not a switch that can be turned on or off at will. but you did. and i dont know how you did it. i want desperately to switch it off so that rationality may again reign over emotion. but how? i can't find that switch. i can't put my finger on it. and i dont have the strength to pull the trigger!

why? why is this all happening? buddha, is this some kind of a test? how can you be so cruel? All my life i try to be good, and yet you stampede my good will without any mercy. life is unfair, but i had always believed if you kept trying, it would all be for the better. but no, you still let this happen, for which i must hate. i am born vindictive. i must hate. and this will not be the end...

Thursday, February 08, 2007

Crim

A few quick reactions to my criminal law class with Rubenfeld:

1. Should we use tougher deterrence for crimes harder to deter?

Rubenfeld raised the possibility that the difference in categorization and eventually in sentencing between 1st and 2nd degree murder is less than intuitive. 1st degree murder punishes cold-blooded killing that also has present intent to kill, premediation or deliberation with greater than 25 years of sentencing, sometimes up to life in prison or capital punishment. 2nd degree murder also has present intent to kill, but is usually acted under heat of passion, where one loses his cool and fails to calculate the effect of the deterrence. Rubenfeld suggests that since 2nd degree murder is harder to deter given the fact that during heat of passion, one's faculty to balance cost against benefit is compromised and one's likelihood to succumb to deterrence is lowerer. Therefore, it should only make sense to up the deterrence, to have a bite. Whereas when one is thinking clear-headed, to reach the same effect, you might only need to give a small dosage of detterence.

This is an interesting thought, but I thought the scope of his analysis seems to dewell on one particular incident, rather than the broad picture. If our goal is to minimize the number of killing in an environment where we are subject to limited resources (we always are), deterring one particular killing is no longer the goal. Resources should be allocated in a way where efficiency is achieved. Another way to state is that the last dollar should be spent where the benefit is just outweighed by the cost. (or you should save that last dollar too!)

The benefit in these cases is clearly lifes saved. The only way to solve the equation is to treat every life of equal values. In other words, saving a life, subject to danger of 1st degree murder is as valuable as saving a life subject to 2nd degree murder.

The cost is then sentencing. Putting someone in prison is not free. Quite the opposite, it could easily cost $30-50k a year! When you give the same sentencing to a guy commiting murder of 1st degree, you get a bigger bang for the buck because he can still think clearly and is still presumably fearful of losing his liberty and freedom.

Another way to look at the problem is that you can take the universe of all murders. Assign a value of the likelihood of deterrence to each case, 1 being the easiest and 10 being the most difficult to deter. Then you sort them low to high. When tough sentencing is invoked, you want to start from the easy ones because it is much more likely to work. This is interesting because we are not considering the benefit received from the cases that eventually happen, but the cases that are effectively deterred as a result of tough sentencing. Then you spend the last dollar (the last tough sentencing) on the one that is equally likely to be deterred as not getting deterred.

Does this suggest that those who are difficult to be deterred should not receive any deterrence? I do not think so - and the evidence is certainly against this hypothesis. The reason that they still receive some jail time is to still deter those whose faculty of thinking is not compromised. The ones that do receive jail time is merely paying the price for having deterrable ones in their group.

Clearly, for those that cannot be deterred at all, it is meangingless to incur cost for we may never reap the benefits of spending that cost.

2. Why is provocation important?

I do not have time now to finish this post, but will come back later. It largely has something to do with there are two ways to prevent killing - tell people 1. dont kill; 2. or alternatively, don't provoke. And if the goal is to minimize the number of killing, it becomes an impirical test to see which way works better. You in effect blame the provoker for the kill in order to provent provocation in the future.

Saturday, January 20, 2007

Interracial marriage

JUST three decades ago, Thurgood Marshall was only months away from appointment to the Supreme Court when he suffered an indignity that today seems not just outrageous but almost incomprehensible. He and his wife had found their dream house in a Virginia suburb of Washington, D.C., but could not lawfully live together in that state: he was black and she was Asian. Fortunately for the Marshalls, in January 1967 the Supreme Court struck down the anti-interracial-marriage laws in Virginia and 18 other states. And in 1967 these laws were not mere leftover scraps from an extinct era. Two years before, at the crest of the civil-rights revolution, a Gallup poll found that 72 per cent of Southern whites and 42 per cent of Northern whites still wanted to ban interracial marriage.

Let's fast-forward to the present and another black - Asian couple: retired Green Beret Lieutenant Colonel Eldrick Woods Sr. and his Thai-born wife, Kultida. They are not hounded by the police -- just by journalists desperate to write more adulatory articles about how well they raised their son Tiger. The colossal popularity of young Tiger Woods and the homage paid his parents are remarkable evidence of white Americans' change in attitude toward what they formerly denounced as ``miscegenation.'' In fact, Tiger's famously mixed ancestry (besides being black and Thai, he's also Chinese, white, and American Indian) is not merely tolerated by golf fans. More than a few seem to envision Tiger as a shining symbol of what America could become in a post-racial age.

Interracial marriage is growing steadily. From the 1960 to the 1990 Census, white - Asian married couples increased almost tenfold, while black - white couples quadrupled. The reasons are obvious: greater integration and the decline of white racism. More subtly, interracial marriages are increasingly recognized as epitomizing what our society values most in a marriage: the triumph of true love over convenience and prudence.Nor is it surprising that white - Asian marriages outnumber black - white marriages: the social distance between whites and Asians is now far smaller than the distance between blacks and whites. What's fascinating, however, is that in recent years a startling number of nonwhites -- especially Asian men and black women -- have become bitterly opposed to intermarriage.

This is a painful topic to explore honestly, so nobody does. Still, it's important because interracial marriages are a leading indicator of what life will be like in the even more diverse and integrated twenty-first century. Intermarriages show that integration can churn up unexpected racial conflicts by spotlighting enduring differences between the races.

For example, probably the most disastrous mistake Marcia Clark made in prosecuting O. J. Simpson was to complacently allow Johnny Cochran to pack the jury with black women. As a feminist, Mrs. Clark smugly assumed that all female jurors would identify with Nicole Simpson. She ignored pretrial research indicating that black women tended to see poor Nicole as The Enemy, one of those beautiful blondes who steal successful black men from their black first wives, and deserve whatever they get.

The heart of the problem for Asian men and black women is that intermarriage does not treat every sex/race combination equally: on average, it has offered black men and Asian women new opportunities for finding mates among whites, while exposing Asian men and black women to new competition from whites.
In the 1990 Census, 72 per cent of black - white couples consisted of a black husband and a white wife. In contrast, white - Asian pairs showed the reverse: 72 per cent consisted of a white husband and an Asian wife.

Sexual relations outside of marriage are less fettered by issues of family approval and long-term practicality, and they appear to be even more skewed. The 1992 Sex in America study of 3,432 people, as authoritative a work as any in a field where reliable data are scarce, found that ten times more single white women than single white men reported that their most recent sex partner was black.
Few whites comprehend the growing impact on minorities of these interracial husband - wife disparities. One reason is that the effect on whites has been balanced. Although white women hunting for husbands, for example, suffer more competition from Asian women, they also enjoy increased access to black men. Further, the weight of numbers dilutes the effect on whites.

In 1990, 1.46 million Asian women were married, compared to only 1.26 million Asian men. This net drain of 0.20 million white husbands into marriages to Asian women is too small to be noticed by the 75 million white women, except in Los Angeles and a few other cities with large Asian populations and high rates of intermarriage. Yet, this 0.20 million shortage of Asian wives leaves a high proportion of frustrated Asian bachelors in its wake.

Black women's resentment of intermarriage is now a staple of daytime talk shows, hit movies like Waiting to Exhale, and magazine articles. Black novelist Bebe Moore Campbell described her and her tablemates' reactions upon seeing a black actor enter a restaurant with a blonde: ``In unison, we moaned, we groaned, we rolled our eyes heavenward . . . Then we all shook our heads as we lamented for the 10,000th time the perfidy of black men, and cursed trespassing white women who dared to 'take our men.''' Like most guys, though, Asian men are reticent about admitting any frustrations in the mating game. But anger over intermarriage is visible on Internet on-line discussion groups for young Asians. The men, featuring an even-greater-than-normal-for-the-Internet concentration of cranky bachelors, accuse the women of racism for dating white guys. For example, ``This [dating] disparity is a manifestation of a silent conspiracy by the racist white society and self-hating Asian [nasty word for ``women''] to effect the genocide of Asian Americans.'' The women retort that the men are racist and sexist for getting sore about it. All they can agree upon is that Media Stereotypes and/or Low Self-Esteem must somehow be at fault.

LET'S review other facts about intermarriage and how they violate conventional sociological theories.
1. You would normally expect more black women than black men to marry whites because far more black women are in daily contact with whites. First, among blacks aged 20 - 39, there are about 10 per cent more women than men alive. Another tenth of the black men in these prime marrying years are literally locked out of the marriage market by being locked up in jail, and maybe twice that number are on probation or parole. So, there may be nearly 14 young black women for every 10 young black men who are alive and unentangled with the law. Further, black women are far more prevalent than black men in universities (by 80 per cent in grad schools), in corporate offices, and in other places where members of the bourgeoisie, black or white, meet their mates.
Despite these opportunities to meet white men, so many middle-class black women have trouble landing satisfactory husbands that they have made Terry (Waiting to Exhale) McMillan, author of novels specifically about and for them, into a best-selling brand name. Probably the most popular romance advice regularly offered to affluent black women of a certain age is to find true love in the brawny arms of a younger black man. Both Miss McMillan's 1996 best-seller How Stella Got Her Groove Back and the most celebrated of all books by black women, Zora Neale Hurston's 1937 classic Their Eyes Were Watching God, are romance novels about well-to-do older women and somewhat dangerous younger men. Of course, as Miss Hurston herself later learned at age 49, when she (briefly) married a 23-year-old gym coach, that seldom works out in real life.
2. Much more practical-sounding advice would be: Since there are so many unmarried Asian men and black women, they should find solace for their loneliness by marrying each other. Yet, when was the last time you saw an Asian man and a black woman together? Black-man/Asian-woman couples are still quite unusual, but Asian-man/black-woman pairings are incomparably more rare.
Similar patterns appear in other contexts:
3a. Within races: Black men tend to most ardently pursue lighter-skinned, longer-haired black women (e.g., Spike Lee's School Daze). Yet black women today do not generally prefer fairer men.
3b. In other countries: In Britain, 40 per cent of black men are married to or living with a white woman, versus only 21 per cent of black women married to or living with a white man.
3c. In art: Madame Butterfly, a white-man/Asian-woman tragedy, has been packing them in for a century, recently under the name Miss Saigon. The greatest black-man/white-woman story, Othello, has been an endless hit in both Shakespeare's and Verdi's versions. (To update Karl Marx's dictum: Theater always repeats itself, first as tragedy, then as opera, and finally as farce, as seen in that recent smash, O.J., The Moor of Brentwood.) Maybe Shakespeare did know a thing or two about humanity: America's leading portrayer of Othello, James Earl Jones, has twice fallen in love with and married the white actress playing opposite him as Desdemona.
4. The civil-rights revolution left husband - wife balances among interracial couples more unequal. Back in 1960 white husbands were seen in 50 per cent of black-white couples (versus only 28 per cent in 1990), and in only 62 per cent of white - Asian couples (versus 72 per cent).
Why? Discrimination, against black men and Asian women. In the Jim Crow South black men wishing to date white women faced pressures ranging from raised eyebrows to lynch mobs. In contrast, the relatively high proportion of Asian-man/white-woman couples in 1960 was a holdover caused by anti-Asian immigration laws that had prevented women, most notably Chinese women, from joining the largely male pioneer immigrants. As late as 1930 Chinese-Americans were 80 per cent male. So, the limited number of Chinese men who found wives in the mid twentieth century included a relatively high fraction marrying white women. In other words, as legal and social discrimination have lessened, natural inequalities have asserted themselves.
5. Keeping black men and white women apart was the main purpose of Jim Crow. Gunnar Myrdal's landmark 1944 study found that Southern whites generally grasped that keeping blacks down also retarded their own economic progress, but whites felt that was the price they had to pay to make black men less attractive to white women. To the extent that white racism persists, it should limit the proportion of black-man/white-woman couples.
SINCE these inequalities in interracial marriage are so contrary to conventional expectations, what causes them? Academia's and the mass media's preferred reaction has been to ignore husband - wife disproportions entirely. When the subject has raised its ugly head, though, they've typically tossed out arbitrary ideas to explain a single piece of the puzzle, rather than address the entire yin and yang of black - white and white - Asian marriages. For example, a Japanese-American poetry professor in Minnesota has written extensively on his sexual troubles with white women. He blames the internment of Japanese Americans during World War II. Presumably, the similarity of frustrations of Chinese-American men is just a coincidence caused by, say, China losing the Opium War. And the problems of Vietnamese men stem from winning the Vietnam War, etc. But piecemeal rationalizations are unappealing compared to a theory which might explain all the evidence.
The general pattern to be explained is: blacks are more in demand as husbands than as wives, and vice-versa for Asians. The question is, what accounts for it?
The usual sociological explanations for who marries whom (e.g., availability, class, and social approval) never work simultaneously for blacks and Asians. This isn't surprising because these social-compatibility factors influence the total number of black - white or white - Asian marriages more than the husband - wife proportions within intermarriages.
By emphasizing how society encourages us to marry people like ourselves, sociologists miss half the picture: by definition, heterosexual attraction thrives on differences. Although Henry Higgins and Colonel Pickering are so compatible that they break into song about it (``Why Can't a Woman Be More like a Man?''), Higgins falls in love with Eliza Doolittle. Opposites attract. And certain race/sex pairings seem to be more opposite than others. The force driving these skewed husband - wife proportions appears to be differences in perceived sexual attractiveness. On average, black men tend to appear slightly more and Asian men slightly less masculine than white men, while Asian women are typically seen as slightly more and black women as slightly less feminine than white women.
Obviously, these are gross generalizations about the races. Nobody believes Michael Jackson could beat up kung-fu star Jackie Chan or that comedienne Margaret Cho is lovelier than Sports Illustrated swimsuit covergirl Tyra Banks. But life is a game of probabilities, not of abstract Platonic essences.
So, what makes blacks more masculine-seeming and Asians more feminine-seeming? Media stereotypes are sometimes invoked. TV constantly shows black men slam-dunking, while it seems the only way an Asian man can get some coverage is to discover a cure for AIDS. Yet try channel-surfing for minority women. You'll see black women dancing, singing, joking, and romancing. If, however, you even see an Asian woman, she'll probably be newscasting -- not the most alluring of roles.
Conventional wisdom sometimes cites social conditioning as well. But while this is not implausible for American-born blacks, who come from a somewhat homogeneous culture, it's insensitive to the diversity of cultures in which Asians are raised. Contrast Koreans and Filipinos and Cambodian refugees and fifth-generation Japanese-Americans. It's not clear they have much in common culturally other than that in the West their women are more in demand as spouses than their men.
One reasonable cultural explanation for the sexual attractiveness of black men today is the hypermasculinization of black life over the last few decades. To cite a benign aspect of this trend, if you've followed the Olympics on TV since the 1960s you've seen sprinters' victory celebrations evolve from genteel exercises in restraint into orgies of fist-pumping, trash-talking black machismo. This showy masculinization of black behavior may be in part a delayed reaction to the long campaign by Southern white males to portray themselves as ``The Man'' and the black man as a ``boy.'' But let's not be content to stop our analysis here. Why did Jim Crow whites try so hard to demean black manhood? As we've seen, the chief reason was to prevent black men from impregnating white women.
So, did all racist whites a century ago make keeping minorities away from their women their highest priority? No. As noted earlier, the anti-Asian immigration laws kept Asian women out, forcing many Asian immigrant bachelors to look for white women (with mixed success). While white men were certainly not crazy about this side effect, it seemed an acceptable tradeoff, since they feared Asian immigrants more as economic than as sexual competitors. But why did whites historically dread the masculine charms of blacks more than those of Asians? Merely asking this question points out that social conditioning is ultimately a superficial explanation of the differences among peoples. Yes, society socializes individuals, but what socializes society?
There are only three fundamental causes for the myriad ways groups differ. The first is unsatisfying but no doubt important: random flukes of history. The second, the favorite of Thomas Sowell and Jared Diamond, is differences in geography and climate. The third is human biodiversity. Let's look at three physical differences between the races. 1) Asian men tend to be shorter than white and black men. Does this matter in the mating game? One of America's leading hands-on researchers into this question, 7'1", 280-pound basketball legend Wilt Chamberlain, reports that in his ample experience being tall and strong never hurt. Biological anthropologists confirm this, finding that taller tends to be better in the eyes of most women in just about all cultures. Like most traits, height is determined by the interaction of genetic and social factors (e.g., nutrition). For example, the L.A. Dodgers' flamethrowing pitcher Hideo Nomo is listed as 6'2", an almost unheard-of height for any Japanese man fifty years ago, owing to the near-starvation diets of the era. While the height gap between Japanese and whites narrowed significantly after World War II, this trend has slowed in recent years as well-fed Japanese began bumping up against genetic limits. Furthermore, it can be rather cold comfort to a 5'7" Asian who is competing for dates with white and black guys averaging 5'11" to hear, ``Your sons will grow up on average a couple of inches taller than you, assuming, of course, that you ever meet a girl and have any kids.'' In contrast, consider a 5'1" Asian coed. Although she'd be happy with a 5'7" boyfriend if she were in an all-Asian school, at UCLA she finds lots of boys temptingly much taller than that, but few are Asian.
2. This general principle -- the more racial integration there is, the more important become physical differences among the races -- can also be seen with regard to hair length. The ability to grow long hair is a useful indicator of youth and good health. (Ask anybody on chemotherapy.) Since women do not go bald and can generally grow longer hair than men, most cultures associate longer hair with femininity. Although blacks' hair doesn't grow as long as whites' or Asians' hair, that's not a problem for black women in all-black societies. After integration, though, hair often becomes an intense concern for black women competing with longer-haired women of other races. While intellectuals in black-studies departments' ebony towers denounce ``Eurocentric standards of beauty,'' most black women respond more pragmatically. They one-up white women by buying straight from the source of the longest hair: the Wall Street Journal recently reported on the booming business in furnishing African-American women with ``weaves'' and ``extensions'' harvested from the follicularly gifted women of China.
3. Muscularity may most sharply differentiate the races in terms of sexual attractiveness. Women like men who are stronger than they; men like women who are rounder and softer. The ending of segregation in sports has made racial differences in muscularity harder to ignore. Although the men's 100-meter dash is among the world's most widely contested events, in the last four Olympics all 32 finalists have been blacks of West African descent.
Is muscularity quantifiable? CBS fitness expert Covert Bailey finds that he needs to recommend different goals -- in terms of percentage of body fat -- to his clients of different races. The standard goal for adult black men is 12 per cent body fat, versus 18 per cent for Asian men. The goals for women are 7 points higher than for men of the same race.
For interracial couples, their ``gender gaps'' in body-fat goals correlate uncannily with their husband - wife proportions in the 1990 Census. The goal for black men (12 per cent) is 10 points lower than the goal for white women (22 per cent), while the goal for white men (15 per cent) is only 4 points lower than the goal for black women (19 per cent). This 10:4 ratio is almost identical to the 72:28 ratio seen in the Census. This correlates just as well for white - Asian couples, too. Apparently, men want women who make them feel more like men, and vice versa for women.
Understanding the impact of genetic racial differences on American life is a necessity for anybody who wants to understand our increasingly complex society. For example, the sense of betrayal felt by Asian men certainly makes sense. After all, they tend to surpass the national average in those long-term virtues -- industry, self-restraint, law-abidingness -- that society used to train young women to look for in a husband. Yet, now that discrimination has finally declined enough for Asian men to expect to reap the rewards for fulfilling traditional American standards of manliness, our culture has largely lost interest in indoctrinating young women to prize those qualities.
The frustrations of Asian men are a warning sign. When, in the names of freedom and feminism, young women listen less to the hard-earned wisdom of older women about how to pick Mr. Right, they listen even more to their hormones. This allows cruder measures of a man's worth -- like the size of his muscles -- to return to prominence. The result is not a feminist utopia, but a society in which genetically gifted guys can more easily get away with acting like Mr. Wrong.
George Orwell noted, ``To see what is in front of one's nose requires a constant struggle.'' We can no longer afford to have our public policy governed by fashionable philosophies which insists upon ignoring the obvious. The realities of interracial marriage, like those of professional sports, show that diversity and integration turn out in practice to be fatal to the reigning assumption of racial uniformity. The courageous individuals in interracial marriages have moved farthest past old hostilities. Yet, they've discovered not the featureless landscape of utter equality that was predicted by progressive pundits, but a landscape rich with fascinating racial patterns. Intellectuals should stop dreading the ever-increasing evidence of human biodiversity and start delighting in it.